Six figurines laid out against an orange background, with a plastic question mark on the left side and another on the right of the figurines.
Six figurines laid out against an orange background, with a plastic question mark on the left side and another on the right of the figurines.
Change & Transformation
6 minutes
By 
Andrew Osterday

Navigating uncertainty: how HR can lead through economic (or any) disruption

What does HR have to do with tariffs?
More than you think.

In a recent article from i4cp, HR leaders are called to step up—not just as talent stewards, but as strategic partners in the face of global instability. The topic? Tariff uncertainty. But the truth is, this isn’t just about tariffs. It’s about how organizations respond to any external volatility—be it economic, political, environmental, or cultural.

Uncertainly affects teams and people in different ways, but HR is uniquely positioned to help employees weather the storm.

At LOCAL, we believe that people strategy is business strategy. So here’s our take on what this research means for today’s HR leaders—and how to turn uncertainty into momentum.

1. Forecast with humans in mind

According to the i4cp survey, 32% of organizations expect headcount reductions due to tariffs. But reactive workforce planning—focused solely on cost-cutting—rarely sets companies up for long-term success.

Instead, HR leaders should approach forecasting like scenario planning, not doomsday prepping. That means modeling a few different paths forward, each based on current trends, to understand potential impacts. It means considering internal mobility and reskilling opportunities before planning layoffs. Most importantly, it means working with people leaders to understand the downstream effects of staffing changes—not just on budgets, but on morale, output, and retention.

Economic agility starts with human foresight—and the most resilient plans are the ones built around people, not just numbers.

2. Connect the dots across departments

Human Resources can’t just align with the business—they are the business. When HR teams are brought in early and given a seat at the table, cross-functional trust grows, execution improves, and the whole organization becomes more responsive to external shocks.

  • Embed HR in business planning. They need a seat at the strategy table at the very start of the conversation to optimize effectiveness. 
  • Create a shared dashboard. Build cross-functional alignment on success metrics like productivity per head or redeployment speed.
  • Facilitate collaborative sprints. Don’t wait until plans are finalized to bring teams together. Work through uncertainty in real-time.

3. Over-communicate, then communicate again

In moments of uncertainty, people don’t need perfect answers—they need transparency. The worst move is to go quiet. When communication stops, speculation starts. And employees generally don’t fill in the blanks with optimism.

Communication during times of change needs to be frequent, multi-directional, and human. It starts by acknowledging what you do know, no matter how limited. Then, instead of reassuring or spinning a positive narrative, share what’s being explored, what remains unknown, and how decisions will be made. Uncertainty doesn’t undermine trust—secrecy does.

Real communication isn’t just about what’s said from the top. It’s how consistently that message travels across every layer of the organization. Managers play a critical role here, but they can’t be expected to improvise. Equip them with the tools, context, and talking points they need to share information with confidence. One mixed message from a well-meaning manager can create more anxiety than a candid “we’re still working through this” ever could.

This kind of communication also means creating channels for upward feedback—not just all-hands decks and CEO Slack messages, but real forums where people can ask questions, share concerns, and feel heard. It’s not about having every answer. It’s about showing that you’re listening, that you care, and that this isn’t a one-way broadcast.

4. Build a culture that can bend without breaking

External disruptions are inevitable. But what determines whether a company survives them isn’t the crisis—it’s the culture.

To create a culture that can weather storms, double down on your values. They’re not decorative—they should guide every decision. That looks like using them as a lens for tough calls: who gets promoted, where to invest limited resources, what initiatives to pause, and how to respond when things go off-script. It means weaving those values into team meetings and recognizing people publicly when they embody them—so they become part of how work feels, not just how it’s framed.

Give your managers real support. They're the emotional backbone of your teams, and they're often the most under-supported. Don’t just expect them to hold space for others—create space for them, too. Train them in people leadership, not just performance reviews. 

And don’t forget recovery. People can power through a lot—but not indefinitely. Recovery means PTO that’s taken without guilt. It means leaders who model boundaries instead of just endorsing them. It means knowing when the best move isn’t to push harder, but to pause with purpose.

Your strategic HR reset

The i4cp article is a wake-up call. Not just for how to respond to tariffs, but for how to redefine HR’s role in shaping organizational strategy during volatile times.

In the face of uncertainty, people-first leadership isn’t just good ethics. It’s good strategy—and the best path forward isn’t through fear, but through capability, clarity, and connection.

Want help turning HR into your company’s competitive edge?


Let’s talk.